Mode analysis

Storyboard

The correlation only determines similarity of the shape of the segment data without considering the absolute values.

It can be assumed that due to climate change and other mechanisms there is a possibility that the magnitudes of the parameters will vary over time.

For this reason, it is advisable to calculate how the magnitudes have varied between the reference segment and the one with the best correlation.

With this information, the historical data of the segment that will be used for the forecast can be scaled.

>Model

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Calculate coefficient $X_k$

Equation

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To estimate the integral

$ X_k = \displaystyle\frac{1}{ T } \displaystyle\int_{0}^{ T } x(t) e^{ i 2 \pi \nu_k t } dt$



you can discretize the function x(t) and replace the integral with a sum:

$ X_k = \displaystyle\frac{1}{ T } \displaystyle\sum_{ n =0}^{ N -1} x_n e^{ i 2 \pi \nu_k n \Delta t }$

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Coefficient in complex form

Equation

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The coefficients of the Fourier transform

$ x(t) = \displaystyle\sum_{k=-\infty}^{\infty}( a_k \cos 2 \pi \nu_k t + b_k \sin 2 \pi \nu_k t )$



can be regrouped as a complex number by defining

$ X_k = a_k - i b_k $

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Magnitudes of the modes

Equation

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If the complex coefficient is

$ X_k = a_k - i b_k $



Its magnitude is defined as

$ r_k = \sqrt{ a_k ^2 + b_k ^2}$

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Modes phase

Equation

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If the complex coefficient is

$ X_k = a_k - i b_k $



the phase can be calculated from

$ \phi_k = \arctan\displaystyle\frac{ b_k }{ a_k }$

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